We’re finding that the structure of the networks is probably much more important than anyone thought in influencing the dispersion of ideas or behaviors. One objective of network science is to explain the mechanics of how these self-perpetuating markets form. In economics, this phenomenon is known as an information cascade: a social chain reaction in which increasing numbers of people buy a product principally because other people are buying it. Rather, it arises dynamically, driven in large part by the growing success of the product itself. In other words, the market for a successful product should not be thought of as existing in some latent state before the product launch waiting for the product to arrive. For every Harry Potter that explodes out of nowhere, there are thousands of books, movies, authors, and actors who live their entire lives in obscurity, and my work suggests that it’s not because they lack quality or desirability. It’s tempting to think of them as fools who missed a sure thing. In the case of Harry Potter, before Bloomsbury bought the rights, several other publishers rejected the manuscript. But network science suggests there’s more to the picture. But why? People tend to think that successful products are somehow destined to succeed because of some intrinsic combination of features that creates and sustains demand. The first book actually started life quite inconspicuously and then, like Razor scooters and the Blair Witch Project, it just caught on. Let’s look at the phenomenal success of Harry Potter. What can network science tell us about how fads spread? That could have implications for understanding practical problems like how ideas spread, how fads catch on, how a small initial failure can cascade throughout a large network like a power grid or a financial system-even how companies can foster internal networks to cope with crises. The principles that apply to social networks, and account for the six-degrees phenomenon, seem to apply to many other kinds of networks as well. And what we seem to be finding is that the small-world phenomenon is not only real but far more universal than anyone thought. Researchers are studying networks of people, companies, boards of directors, computers, financial institutions-any system that comprises many discrete but connected components-to look for the common principles. That has changed really only in the last decade, and there’s been a corresponding burst of interest in network science. Until recently, it’s been hard to study the small-world problem because we lacked adequate computing power. The preliminary picture is more complicated than Milgram realized, but it looks like his main finding of six degrees is in the ballpark. We now have over 50,000 message chains originating in 163 countries in search of 18 targets around the world.
So, my colleagues and I are conducting an Internet experiment to try to settle the matter. But Milgram’s actual results were far less conclusive than most people realize. If this small-world hypothesis is correct, it has important implications for the nature of social networks. This finding has since been enshrined in the notion that everyone can be connected by a chain of acquaintances roughly six links long. When Milgram looked at the letters that reached the target, he found that they had changed hands only about six times. But they could only send the letter to a personal friend whom they thought was somehow closer to the target than they were. In his experiments, a few hundred people from Boston and Omaha tried to get a letter to a target-a complete stranger in Boston.
Milgram decided to investigate the so-called small-world problem, the hypothesis that everyone on the planet is connected by just a few intermediaries. The notion of six degrees of separation grew out of work conducted by the social psychologist Stanley Milgram in the 1960s. You’re using the Internet to study the “six degrees” phenomenon. Following are edited excerpts of their conversation. HBR’s Gardiner Morse recently spoke with Watts about his work. Norton), Watts explores the cutting edge of network science and its practical implications. In his new book out this month, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (W.W. By teasing out the fundamental rules that govern networks of people, machines, companies, and economies, Watts hopes to learn more about how ideas spread, financial systems fail, and businesses survive crises. Watts is one of the principal architects of network theory, the study of network structure and behavior. But Columbia sociologist Duncan Watts is working to see if such small worlds really exist and how they might work. The idea that we’re all connected by just “six degrees”-six other people-is entrenched in our folklore.
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